Tag Archives: prediction

Nature’s unpredictable… Or is it? 

Nationality: African American

Primary Language: English

Other language(s): French

Age: 65

Occupation: Management Consultant

Residence: Upstate, NY

Performance Date: 4/20/2025

Context: 

My informant, WB, is a family member of mine who lives in the Hudson Valley area of New York. From what I remember, they’ve always been into signs, aspects of nature that may influence decisions, and a lot of times, they’d be spiritual. I asked her one day, especially as I got more into science growing up, if there were any signs they could explain with science that they’d understand growing up that I may have never heard of, and there were. 

Text: 

“A ring around the moon means it’s going to rain. Growing up near farms 60 years ago before the sophistication of modern weather forecasting, we looked for signs in nature to predict weather. This of course could only be a source for prediction if it was a moonlit night. So when it was not a moonlit night, we listened for crickets to indicate a warming or cooling of the weather.  Also, whistling frogs for the coming of spring. Other indicators of bad weather were if your joints ache. This means a lot to me because it connects me to nature and the wonders around us in the natural world. To this date, I listen for crickets and whistling frogs to predict weather conditions. This was all passed down to us generation after generation. And it turns out that there was logic to this:

A ring around the moon: moisture high up in the atmosphere.

Whistling frogs: a warming trend for the coming spring and the frogs thaw. 

Aching joint: barometric pressure changes.

Crickets: hatch in the late summer.”

Analysis:  

This entry is a beautiful example of weather lore. Plus, it’s rooted in a time before people had access to modern meteorological tools. Though in my research, the belief that “a ring around the moon means it’s going to rain,” is actually one of the most widely known pieces of weather folklore, and has some scientific backing: the ring, or lunar halo, forms due to ice crystals in cirrostratus clouds high in the atmosphere, which often precede storm systems. So in that sense, this isn’t just folklore; it’s observational science passed down through generations. I also love how WB connects this tradition to other nature-based signs, like cricket chirps, whistling frogs, to aching joints. From my analysis of such signs, I found that many of these signs actually do correlate with changes in weather or season. For instance, Cleveland Clinic, in their article, “How Changes in Weather Affect Joint Pain,” explains the barometric pressure to joints, and according to the University of Minnesota’s Twin Cities, in their article, “Songs of Spring: A Ribbiting Chorus – Bell Museum,” frogs do indeed become more vocal as temperatures rise, signaling spring. What stands out to me most though is how WB frames all of this as a meaningful connection to nature, especially as our generations start to get lost in the digital age. This entry is fascinating to me because it’s not just about weather predictions, it’s about a whole way of understanding and interacting with the natural world. WB doesn’t just remember these signs nostalgically; WB still uses them, which shows how folklore can remain alive and functional even in a most contemporary context.

Superstition: a Black Cat Crosses one’s Path

Nationality: American
Age: 74
Occupation: Trader (retired)
Residence: Irvine, CA
Primary Language: English

Text:

“When I was younger, especially in my trading days, whenever I saw a black cat cross my path, I could not help but feel uneasy. I think it’s just something that was ingrained in me as a kid, and I didn’t get over it until I retired.”

Context:

My informant heard this from his parents as a child growing up in Cleveland, and believed in it until he retired from trading and now interprets it as a trivial superstition. 

Analysis:

My informant’s superstition is an example of sign superstition, as, in the belief, an observed event leads to a certain outcome, in this case a black cat crossing one’s path leads to an uncertain amount of bad luck. My informant did not mention a way of negating the event. 

My informant’s origin in 1950’s Cleveland does not appear to bear specific relevance to the superstition, as it is widely held. However, his belief, and his parents’ choice to pass down the belief, could have been given breath by the western cultural association of the color black with the occult, death, or bad luck. For example, in many cultures, people wear black to mourn the dead. Also, in European tradition, cats have been associated with witchcraft and the devil, or other forms of supernatural evil. In addition, my informant is a lifelong Catholic, which could implicate Christian views of the color black as a symbol of death, sin, and evil. These facts of the black cat, coupled with the symbol of one’s walking path as one’s path in life, could explain the underlying factors that empower the superstition. 

My informant’s post-retirement detachment from the belief could be explained by a reduction in anxiety following a stressful road to a stressful career. Without as much pressure on his shoulders, perhaps he became less prone to attempting to control his surroundings through superstition. 

No Bones Day

Context: Informant uses a social media platform known as ‘TikTok’. Tiktok allows users to follow other members, and view other member’s videos.

Background Information: Informant uses TikTok mostly to look at cute animal videos and follow current trends. Although Informant does not take TikTok very seriously, they enjoy playing into it a little for amusement.

Informant: “So TikTok, there’s this guy who posts this videos of his pug, and i can’t remember the pug’s name, but I think it’s noodle, or, something? Anyways, I follow this guy and he posts these videos of his pug and this is the oldest pug in the world, like, this an 18 year old dog or something,, she’s a tired girl, or boy, i don’t actually know what gender this pug is. Ok, but, he will post these videos when he wakes up his pug in the morning, and he stands them up, and the pug will either fall back down or it will stand on its own. And it’s so cute, and people will be like, if the dog, like, stands up, then it’s a ‘Bones Day’, but if it falls down it’s a ‘No Bones Day’. So, people will base their day on this little, incredible old pug. Cause’, if its a bones day then that’s like, “gotta get up and go and be determined and, work hard” and, if it’s a no-bones day, then like, you’re able to flop and take a rest and self-care day basically. Anyways, he got really popular and all these people were following him, and for a long time, for a while, people would just base their whole day on this pug.”

Thoughts: This is incredibly humorous, I don’t think anyone necessarily truly believed that the pug was able to forecast the day, however I don’t think that is the point. Folklore is full of looking at the physical world for advice and information on the future. By having a large amount of people support the psychic powers of this pug, the notion gains a sort of validity. There are lots of things uncertain in life, and it can be difficult balancing healthy self-care with determined hard work. by relying on this pug, people have a (semi-valid?) way of ‘knowing’ that they are balancing their life every day. ‘Noodle’ the pug serves as a comfort for people to feel like they are handling their life correctly, in accordance to their own needs for balance as well as society’s demands.

Using a string and piece of string to predict the gender of a baby

Nationality: Mexican
Age: 54
Occupation: Health Care Executive
Residence: San Diego
Performance Date: 4/18/2020
Primary Language: English
Language: Spanish

Main Piece

Informant: So you put a ring on a string. You loop it and then you hang it in front of the pregnant woman by her stomach-but don’t let it touch the stomach. If it motions sideways then it means it is a girl, but if it motions front and back it is supposed to be a boy. They say the energy of the baby swings the ring, that is kind of what they say causes it.

Interviewer: Was it ever done on you? 

Informant: It was never done on myself, but I saw it done on others. It was really popular at baby showers if the Mother was dying to know, and it was almost like a game. I guess before sonograms that is how they did it, haha. I just think the unknown of wanting to know the gender before the technology caused it. Is there any scientific proof that will cause the ring to sway a different way, I don’t know. 

Background

The informant is my mother, a Mexican woman who is first-generation and the oldest of 3, who was born and raised in San Ysidro,CA  a border town just north of Tijuana, Mexico. Influenced by memories and conversations with her great great grandmother, many of her practices, customs, and beliefs were passed down from her maternal side of Mexican customs. Fluent in both English and Spanish, the informant has always felt conflicted about her culture as she wanted to fit in with American customs but wanted to preserve her Mexican heritage and traditions. The informant had her first child when she was 18, and worked her way as a single mother with two kids to attain her Master’s Degree and is now the Executive Vice President at a non-profit health clinic that serves the community she was raised in.

Context

I remember seeing this practice done at one of my older cousin’s baby showers, and I asked the informant more about it. From what I remember, the ring accurately predicted the gender of the baby as it was before they revealed or found out the gender of the baby.

Analysis

This folk belief is a perfect example of signs, and using material objects in order to predict the future. I think it is interesting that this practice is usually done at baby showers almost as a game, as it continues to foster the belief that magic and witchcraft are associated with the female gender. This practice is still used in our family and in baby showers as a fun game, and it is one usually passed down in Mexican families as well.

Splitting Poles and Friendship

Nationality: American
Age: 19
Occupation: Student
Residence: Los Angeles
Performance Date: 4/3/2019
Primary Language: English

Transcription

Collector: So yeah, I remember when we were hanging out that you, like, had us walk around the poles if we both went on opposite sides of it. Is that something you do with everyone or, like, how did you learn that?

Informant: Yeah! So, when I was in sixth or seventh grade, my best friend did it because she was superstitious. And she was superstitious because her mom was, so like it kind of passed on to me. But now it’s basically conditioned in me so I always do it.

Collector: so what does it even mean to split the poles?

Informant: So if you’re walking with someone or a group of people and you pass by a pole or trash can or anything that’s an obstacle, you all need to walk on the same side of the obstacle or you will split with the person who walked on the other side. And by split, I mean no longer be friends. Like there will be a big fight in the future or the people will just stop talking with each other. So you have to walk on the same side because then you’ll lose each other.

Context

Collector lives with the informant and is best friends with her. The practice was viewed many times as they were together and the collector wanted context for it. This explanation was prompted by the collector’s question about the origins of the custom. At this point, the custom is a habit for both the informant and the collector, who both make conscious efforts to walk on the same side of the pole. If one of them is on the wrong side by accident and realizes after the fact, they will go back and walk around on the correct side of the pole to undo the mistake. 

Analysis 

In this case, I feel that the act of “splitting the pole” is seen as homeopathic magic, as the physical, bodily splitting represents the metaphorical and emotional split as well. However, in this case, it isn’t a representation of the person that is being performed upon, but instead the people themselves representing a future version of themselves. The tangible, current action of walking on either side of the road is a representation of the future emotional split that could happen as a result of the gesture.